Independent scientist questions economic case for Sandpiper phosphate project
Staff Reporter INDEPENDENT fisheries management scientist, Dr Carola Kirchner, says available evidence of Sandpiper Marine Phosphate mining is incomplete and partly outdated. Dr Carola Kirchner holds a Bachelor of Science (BSc) fro m the University of Southern California (US), a Bachelor of Science Honours (BSc Honours) from the University of Cape Town (UCT), a Master ... The post Independent scientist questions economic case for Sandpiper phosphate project appeared first on Informanté .
INDEPENDENT fisheries management scientist, Dr Carola Kirchner, says available evidence of Sandpiper Marine Phosphate mining is incomplete and partly outdated. Dr Carola Kirchner holds a Bachelor of Science (BSc) fro
m the University of Southern California (US), a Bachelor of Science Honours (BSc Honours) from the University of Cape Town (UCT), a Master of Business Administration (MBA) from UCT and a Doctor of Philosophy (PhD) from Nelson Mandela University (NMMU), released a researched opinion piece questioning the economic case.
Kirchner said the key concern was not simply the current phosphate price, but the project’s exposure to commodity-price volatility over its proposed 20-year mine life, as well as unresolved questions surrounding the land-based processing facility and its freshwater requirements.
She said it would be premature to conclude that the project is uneconomic, but equally premature to treat the economic benefits cited by Namibian Marine Phosphate (NMP) as established without updated project-level financial and environmental information.
In her review of the Sandpiper project, Kirchner said the project would be particularly exposed to fluctuations in phosphate prices because of its long operating life.
World Bank monthly data, according to the review, show North African phosphate rock prices ranging from US$44 per tonne to US$450 per tonne since 2006. The benchmark remained below US$150 per tonne for 101 consecutive months between June 2013 and October 2021, and below US$120 per tonne for 64 consecutive months between February 2016 and May 2021.
The annual average price subsequently fell from about US$324 per tonne in 2023 to US$152.50 per tonne in 2024, a decline of about 53%. The July 2026 price was recorded at US$170 per tonne.
Kirchner said an indicative production cost of about US$38 per tonne for 27.5% P₂O₅ concentrate in a 2018 Stratecon model should be regarded as a historical reference rather than a current break-even estimate.
She said current costs associated with the land-based processing plant, freshwater supply, dredging, contractors, energy, port charges, financing, maintenance and other operations had not been adequately demonstrated.
The review also raises questions about the consistency of revenue and pricing assumptions contained in the project’s 2022 Environmental and Social Impact Assessment (ESIA).
The ESIA refers to a June 2022 North African benchmark price of US$287.50 per tonne, while also estimating annual Sandpiper revenue of N$4.2 billion at full production of three million tonnes per year.
Using the ESIA’s stated capital expenditure conversion, Kirchner calculates that the projected revenue would imply an approximate realised price of US$87 per tonne. She said the difference could relate to product grade, net realised prices, older assumptions or other commercial adjustments, but should be explicitly reconciled.
Kirchner said an important issue was that Sandpiper would not simply dredge offshore material and sell it directly.
The marine operation would recover and transport sediment to Walvis Bay, where a separate land-based facility would process and beneficiate it into the 27–28% P₂O₅ phosphate concentrate intended for export.
She pointed out that the 2022 marine ESIA describes the land-based process as being provided “for information purposes only” and says it does not form part of the impact assessment.
The ESIA also indicated that the site allocation for the buffer pond, processing plant and tailings dam was still pending.
According to Kirchner, the ESIA states that the land-based component requires a separate environmental assessment and Environmental Clearance Certificate based on a revised layout, and that both the marine and land components require permitting before full-scale production can begin.
“This means marine clearance alone is insufficient to create an operating phosphate-export project,” the review argues.
Kirchner said the absence of a completed assessment and clearance for the land-based component also leaves questions about the project’s overall environmental and economic viability.
Freshwater supply is another unresolved issue, she said.
The beneficiation process requires clean water to wash salt residue from the filtered concentrate, while the 2022 ESIA indicates that options for supplying freshwater, including reverse osmosis, were still being investigated.
Kirchner said the available material did not provide a final water source or quantified freshwater demand.
For a large industrial operation in Namibia’s arid coastal environment, she said, the volume and source of freshwater, competing demands, supply infrastructure and associated energy requirements are material considerations.
If reverse osmosis is selected, the infrastructure, energy consumption and waste-stream management associated with the process would also need to be assessed, she said.
Kirchner said a credible economic assessment shoul
