Crude Oil: The inflation transmission channel for Namibia
Crude oil is the single most important commodity for Namibian macroeconomic conditions. The Iran war, which the International Energy Agency (IEA) characterised as the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market, disrupted 20% of global oil supply via the Strait of Hormuz.
Crude oil is the single most important commodity for Namibian macroeconomic conditions. The Iran war, which the International Energy Agency (IEA) characterised as the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market, disrupted 20% of global oil supply via the Strait of Hormuz.
Brent surged from approximately US$72/barrel of oil (bbl) on 27 February to nearly US$120 at peak a 51% monthly gain in March, one of the largest one-month surges on record.
Although a ceasefire was announced on 8 April, ship traffic through the Strait remained far below pre-war levels. As of late June, Brent traded near US$80 to US$81/bbl following the suspension of US-Iran peace talks in Geneva.
TD Securities sees Brent averaging US$104/bbl in the second half of 2026, with growing risks that prices could spike toUS$150 if Hormuz disruptions persist. Middle East production is unlikely to return to pre-war levels before October-November at the earliest.
Even under a durable peace scenario, supply chain bottlenecks, infrastructure damage and lingering production outages are expected to keep markets tight, anchoring Brent in the US$80-90 range rather than a full return to the pre-crisis US$60-72 equilibrium.
